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| 12/10/2009 |
| Renaissance Capital and the New Economic School launch “RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator” |
Moscow, December 10, 2009 - Renaissance Capital and the New Economic School are pleased to announce the launch of the first index that measures current and projects future gross domestic product (GDP) in Russia, the RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator.
The RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator has been put together over the last year by Renaissance Capital’s award-winning Research team and leading economists from the New Economic School. The Index consists of 108 weighted components that serve as input variables. It is Russia’s first timely and most accurate measure of economic growth, outperforming all existing benchmarks and competitive models.
Beginning today, the RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator will be issued on the 10th of every month, giving a “nowcast” of what GDP growth is in the current quarter as well as a forecast of what GDP growth is expected to be in the next quarter.
The Leading GDP Indicator projects that seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth in 4Q 2009 will be 2.3% and in 1Q 2010 it will be 2.6%. Year-on-year real GDP is expected to decline 5.7% this quarter vs. 4Q 2008, and increase 6.4% in 1Q 2010 vs. 1Q 2009.
Sergei Guriev, Rector of the New Economic School, said: “We are excited to team up with Renaissance Capital's research team to produce what we think is the most relevant monthly indicator of economic activity in Russia. We realized the urgent need for such an indicator a year ago when both Russian society and Russian government were lacking the up-to-date information on the rapidly changing economic realities. We have worked for several months using the most advanced econometric techniques to calibrate a methodology that will provide investors around the world with a coincident and leading indicator of Russian GDP.”
Alexei Moisseev, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, said: “It is difficult to overestimate the importance of accurate and timely GDP forecasting. We expect the RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator will quickly become an invaluable tool for policymakers, the investor community and businesspeople running Russia’s largest corporations.”
About Renaissance Capital (www.rencap.com)
Renaissance Capital is a leading investment banking firm in the CIS, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Renaissance Capital has market-leading positions in each of its core businesses - M&A, equity and debt capital markets, securities sales and trading, research, and derivatives. Renaissance Capital is part of the Renaissance Group.
About the New Economic School (www.nes.ru)
The New Economic School was founded in 1992 by a group of leading Russian and international academic economists with approval from the Government of the Russian Federation. The mission of the New Economic School is to benefit Russia's private and public sectors through excellence in economics education and research. Among resident faculty of the School there are 23 young Russian economists, who hold PhD degrees in economics and finance from the leading international universities. According to the RePEC rankings, NES is the best department of economics among the post-communist countries and is among 60 leading economics departments in Europe. The Center for Economic and Financial Research at NES (CEFIR at NES) is 12th in the world's research ranking of economic think tanks.
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